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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.