Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The mean count of daily homicides each month in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative statistics. However, security experts have warned that murder numbers could fail to signal enhanced national security.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded during these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the lowest number of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an ostensibly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, security analysts warned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is especially true given the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for gauging the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was also concerning because it might obscure days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.