🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.