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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still