🔗 Share this article

At first, Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "severe ramifications" in August if Russia's president carried on blocking peace talks, the former president finally imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This decision significantly hindered Putin's capability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his latest 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly created by American and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has clearly reverted to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's plan would essentially favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative actually undermine that essential independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his corporate past, the former president continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a part of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. But, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a damaged area of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it no longer acts as an attractive example for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that his growing autocracy prevents them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in status the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would require the nation to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this concession would make Ukraine's military defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that represent a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed path to Kyiv in case he later choose to resume the hostilities.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate renewed hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as Nazis, the proposal declares: "Every radical ideology and activities must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump places no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has Russia promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has breached comparable treaties in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied areas in the region to Ukrainian control – how should we have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western defense commitments. While the plan promises a "strong unified military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics range from unclear to troubling. The initiative would not just block the nation accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from restoring his reduced forces, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Response

A separate parallel deal apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. But unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against additional hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not